When to announce

While each and every cycle what works in a given campaign and what does not is a very fluid. There is some wisdom to have your candidate come into a race early or late. With our Mr Gore there is currently no advantage to having him throw his hat into the ring.

What this does is allow groups like us here to plant some grassroots and once he does enter the race, which I believe he will do,the campaign seem to take a life of it's own.

So what one day was grassroots is the next because of what follows after the words "My Fellow American's" is something called a campaign and these babies are any thing but normal to be on, or around.

Lets enjoy these last days of draft the man before we are in the days of how many delegates does Gore have and do we have enough money to be active in that state at that time you that state thinks they need it most.

It is up to us to Draft the man until that time.

Nelson


Obama-mania is growing strong

The Geffen affair of last week will hasten the polarization of Democratic Party. When people start identifying themselves with a certain candidate, they usually start to develop emotional bonds with the candidate. That explains why H. Clinton has such a huge following in the Party. Whether you like him or not, people bonded with Bill Clinton and that emotional bond transferred to Hillary.

Gore has the best chance of taking away some of that bond, because he served with him. However, while running in 2000, he wasn't the strongest defender of Bill. So may be Gore can chip away about 5~10% of the people who committed emotionally to Hillary. That leaves about 20~25% of Democratic voters who'll vote for Hillary in primary no matter what.

Biggest threat to Gore's chance is Obama. Even in this site many people would like to have Obama in the ticket. I also believe Gore - Obama ticket is formidable. However, as Obama's popularity grows and "battle" between candidates rages, Obama camp will dig in and the follower will forge ever tighter emotional bonds with him.

Many media "experts" forecast that "battle" of Hillary vs. Obama will justify Gore's entrance into the mix. If you believe that theory, I have a bridge I want to show you...

As the two camp's hostility increases more and more activists will join the camps. First each camp's war chest is growing bigger and bigger. And they can afford to hire many. With growing paid and volunteer foot soldiers, each camp will force many of the party members, especially donors and power brokers. After battling in the fox holes of party politic, it’s hard to break ranks and join a third campaign. I think that may be the true reason why Hillary camp started carpet bombing campaign.

When there's a fierce antagonism between two leaders, people in the group tend to congregate toward the two leaders and start identify with their sectarian leaders. Many media "experts" predicted that biggest winner of the Geffen affair was 2nd tier candidates like Edwards and Richardson. I think they are completely wrong on this. The affair will decimate them. The affair only showed 2nd tier is not even "worthy" of battle. 2nd tier candidates are now officially irrelevant. They should position themselves for VP spot. Richardson looks like he’s going with Hillary. Dodd may be Obama. Edwards may be the odd guy out. He cannot run as a VP again.

Luckily, Gore was not involved in the battle. But tragically, time is running out. I believe at the latest he needs to declare within 2 months. Sooner the better. Next two months Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iran issues will dominate the news and Gore’s issues and Oscars will be virtually forgotten. Democratic Party will be polarized more and more. Already, many party leaders are aligning themselves with one of the two. For a politician, it’ll be hard to rescind their support for one of two and support Gore. Recently Senator Daschle endorsed Obama and Barbara Boxer might be endorsing Obama soon.

Boxer is one of my favorite. During her first senate campaign, she kicked out replacement camera crew of local TV station. Recently Obama spoke at Boxer’s fundraising event. Her endorsement will be crucial for Obama as she is one of the few senators who oppose Iraq Invasion and probably more popular among hardcore democrats than Feinstein. Feinstein will likely support Hillary, I think. Once Boxer officially announces endorsement, I think the door will close for Gore unless he can get Pelosi to endorse him.

Whoever wins California primary will basically be the next Democratic candidate. In 2004, California had 55 delegates while New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, S. Carolina and Florida combined had 51 delegates. That’s 55 out of 538, more that 10%. And that 55 will be given to one candidate in February. We’ve got to change the system. But that’ll be the rule for this campaign, so learn it and deal with it.

Thus, waiting for one of the two to fail or muddy themselves is not a good strategy. First, Obama-mania is literally sweeping the party. Clintonites are digging in for a bloody battle. Only way he can enter the race with justification would be if he had a clearly defined strategy for solving the Iraq question within a month or so.

The strategy must include step by step, how US is going to de-escalate the Involvement and secure an acceptable stability in Iraq. Slogan laden speech is not going to work. Besides, Obama seems to have that speech thing down. Al Gore’s entrance to the race will marginalize Obama (among 3) relatively and focus that buzz around Gore. Acceptance of VP is a good deal for Obama in this election. But after a 1 ~ 2 month long bout with Hillary camp, Obama campaign might become too dug in to being set aside and could gang up on Gore. At some point campaign staff will too dug in to give up the ultimate prize.

If Mr. Gore cannot develop a unique and sound policy on Iraq soon, he should just stay with his cause of Global Warming. Global Warming after all may be more important and he can do more as the czar of environment causes.


Clearly you have never been in a Presidential race.

reelectademocrat's picture

Look! this race is just beginning.

To date I just see Al practicing another form of conservation, just with money! Since most of that would be coming from the likes of me and you. hold out Al --

Heck there is not need to enter as there is not clear front running candidate.

The same poll that showed Obama catching up with Hillary in the African American community also showed Al gaining 4 percentage points..

.As for Obama he is great, hey HRC is great too, All of them are going to be a nice fit for www.GorePutyourfavhere08.com

Give Em Gore

Nelson

_______________________________________________
Nelson Jacobsen
Washington DC


Re: Clearly.....

No, I haven't been in a presidential election. I voted a few times but never been really interested in the campaign itself. I've been an activist...a life time ago. About 15 years ago. Now I am just an ordinary dad.

From my activist days, I learned that "fake" liberal is worse than "hardcore" conservative to a liberal cause. Bill Clinton was a "fake" and Hillary is a bigger "fake". Ground work for neocon's aggressive invasion plans were laid out by Clinton's campaign of air strike to "independent" countries, regardless of "collateral damage". Remember the bombing of Iraq, level factory for supposedly weapon manufacturing plant that killed many civilians. People need to be vigilant regardless of which Party is in the White House.

Also, Bill Clinton cut a lot of vital social services. He did a lot to boost moral of Democrats but I don’t know how much he did for people’s cause.

I don't think I could vote for Hillary Clinton. I am beginning to have doubts about Obama, also. He is beginning to look more of like a politician. He recently pledged "complete" support of Israel to AIPAC type crowd....


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